Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.869794 1.015105 1.176872 1.370280 1.595235 1.848658 2.155893
2024-12-29 0.669854 0.873282 1.125421 1.460802 1.895301 2.439452 3.173334
2025-01-05 0.517533 0.729565 1.013043 1.419556 1.987745 2.754295 3.868527
2025-01-12 0.414723 0.623091 0.919383 1.371096 2.042653 3.005096 4.491793
2025-01-19 0.341939 0.542885 0.844286 1.328786 2.088568 3.235791 5.103491
2025-01-26 0.301687 0.503159 0.820076 1.354165 2.232490 3.621778 5.991825
2025-02-02 0.282144 0.492135 0.837062 1.443871 2.485840 4.204979 7.264899
2025-02-09 0.257397 0.468048 0.828237 1.487664 2.666258 4.688321 8.431777
2025-02-16 0.232620 0.439822 0.807695 1.506817 2.804101 5.112681 9.546727
2025-02-23 0.208846 0.409680 0.779127 1.506410 2.904497 5.479646 10.600082
2025-03-02 0.186772 0.379431 0.745995 1.492164 2.975518 5.798514 11.599449
2025-03-09 0.169755 0.356562 0.723591 1.494910 3.078046 6.186117 12.775842
2025-03-16 0.148130 0.321885 0.674610 1.440298 3.063765 6.353344 13.553178
2025-03-23 0.143736 0.322737 0.697742 1.537649 3.375104 7.213336 15.875152
2025-03-30 0.127242 0.294995 0.657419 1.494317 3.381997 7.443980 16.888656
2025-04-06 0.112306 0.268549 0.616290 1.443323 3.364601 7.619057 17.800496
2025-04-13 0.099757 0.245787 0.580275 1.398800 3.355295 7.809303 18.769128
2025-04-20 0.093507 0.237099 0.575198 1.425506 3.514287 8.397245 20.737359
2025-04-27 0.092003 0.239815 0.597190 1.519907 3.846825 9.426697 23.893620
2025-05-04 0.087622 0.234654 0.599481 1.565991 4.066747 10.214648 26.558407
2025-05-11 0.082186 0.225988 0.591953 1.586146 4.223834 10.867834 28.967231
2025-05-18 0.076231 0.215087 0.577301 1.585716 4.327327 11.398522 31.125692
2025-05-25 0.070169 0.203041 0.558134 1.570726 4.390317 11.832995 33.085603